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Israeli assets and the shekel remain under pressure and oil and gold prices are marginally higher than last week. World Markets Impact From MidEast Attacks WanesBlackRock chart on its Geopolitical Risk IndicatorNOWHERE TO RUN TO... Last updated shortly before the weekend events in Israel, BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator - which attempts to capture market attention to political risks - had indeed crept up to six month highs. Releasing its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that more volatile commodity prices were a possible reflection of both greater climate and geopolitical risk. And yet hand wringing about geopolitical risk in different corners of the globe can also deflect from rising political risks in core economies - not the least in the United States.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vincent Mortier, Anna Rosenberg, Kristina Hooper reckons, Hooper, that's, It's, Amundi's Rosenberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, West Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Iran, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Taiwan, Ukraine
The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA
A member of the Peoples Armed Police stands guard in front of the flag of the European Union at the European Delegation in Beijing, China. As the United States looks at disengaging from China, Europe could soon find itself in a sweet spot. "The U.S.' hawkish policy stance towards China means that China needs to improve relations with Europe to mitigate the impact of export controls. Therefore, China has an incentive to work hard on improving EU relations," Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Institute, told CNBC via email. "Viewed from China, the EU is the most important high-income market that it still has largely unfettered access to.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't expect the EU to win big concessions on the IRA, Amundi Institute saysAnna Rosenberg of the Amundi Institute says "ultimately, the EU cannot match the [U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.]"
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (L) speaks with US President Joe Biden. President Joe Biden will welcome Ursula von der Leyen to the White House this week, with the European Union's top official eager to gain concessions amid a tense subsidy spat between the two giant trading blocs. "We want to achieve as much non-discriminatory treatment for EU products and companies as possible, avoiding distortions of the level playing field," a spokesperson for the European Commission, told CNBC via email Friday. This could ultimately mean less innovation in Europe and fewer jobs for Europeans too. "I do not think [European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen will manage to extract meaningful concessions from the U.S. on the IRA.
A year from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fracturing geopolitics seems to be rolling back world trade links and financial interdependence at speed. But global financial conditions - and the strength of the U.S. dollar as a proxy for that - may be playing a bigger part than the more dramatic political narrative lets on. "A stronger dollar tends to go hand in hand with tighter global financial conditions and more subdued supply chain activity." Compensating somewhat for dollar exchange rate strength over the decade were historically low real dollar borrowing rates. There's little doubt that the pandemic and the geopolitics surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan have been major potential disruptions to world trade by themselves.
The United States has stepped up its heavy rhetoric against China, and wants Europe to follow suit. Reports suggested that American officials had told European counterparts to consider using export control restrictions on China. "While the U.S. is trying to pull the EU into its direction to distance itself from China, the EU is keen to maintain economic ties to China. This comes at a time when the relationship between the EU and U.S. is turning a little sour. The EU said this challenges international trade rules and is a threat to European companies.
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